Saturday, October 17, 2015

Job Uncertainty & Risk

      Senior year is filled with people worrying about where they will work, running from class to interviews in stuffy suits, making day long trips up to Chicago, all in the hopes that you will find a job that fits your wants. I have been fortunate enough to recieve multiple job offers and a unique risk experience.

     I interned for two summers at a biopharma company in their finance department. I really liked that they had a development program that allowed for you to experience four different jobs within two years within different sectors of finance. I recieved a full time offer for their development program, but it wasn't what I wanted. However, with a very competitive job market, I was nervous to turn down a job when I didn't have an alternative lined up. I had a deadline of September 19th and pushed for an extension to see if I could find an alternative I was more interested in. I requested a month long extension and they countered and agreed to two weeks. The company also was hedging their risk by not allowing me to have a long enough extension to find something else, they were putting the pressure on me to accept.

    I was unsure of what the risk was to me declining: what was the probability I would get a job? how many interviews would I have? even if I had interviews what were the chances I had each round? I knew I wanted to get into consulting, but I also knew I'd be competing against some of the best. I tried my best to build assumptions on my chances. I applied to over ten consulting firms in the hopes that I would get enough interviews to mitigate my risk of declining the  current job offer.

   As my October 3rd deadline approached I looked at the following factors when deciding if accepting or declining was my best option.

  • How many interviews did I have?
  • What was the likely hood of me getting a position?
  • How competitive is the position?
  • Do I have enough options I like ?
  I ended up getting interviews at every company I liked, but still no offer. I decided to ask for another extension, but correctly knew that my chances were slim. I was decline the extension, the company needed to protect themselves against the risk of me drawing it out so they could accelerate their talent pipeline. I was torn on what to do. I had recieved nine interviews with six of them being companies I was actually interested in. Even though they were competitive I did my research on the companies, practiced my interviewing, and networked to best maximize my chances of getting a position.

   I took a risk and declined the offer, even though I had no certain alternative. However, that decision was driven by external factors. I was going to be living at home for a while anyways and my parents were financially stable enough to support me even if I didn't get a job right away. I had no loans or outstanding balances to pay so I didn't have any pressure to absolutely begin getting income right away. This security hedged against my risk and made it a less risky decision to decline the offer. 

   Luckily for me I recieved two offers the following week so I was left job less only for a short period of time (those three days of unemployement were difficult). I am usually a very risk adverse person but my mom explained to me that by accepting my offer, I was for sure closing myself off from what I wanted to do whereas by declining I was keeping a maybe open to the consulting world. For me the risk paid off, but without the security of interviews and financial stability I would have accepted the offer immediately.

2 comments:

  1. Your focus in this post is present tense, with all the action taking place in the very recent past. I really don't know how much management there was in this case. Certainly you had decisions to make, but those seemed like very straightforward decisions.

    So, let me discuss a few things you might have written about in addition. One question is about whether you have insurance against income risk near term, say from your parents. Other students have reported that their parents have paid tuition and perhaps also bought a car for them. Kids in that situation likely have the possibility of asking their parents for more help, should the need arise. They probably don't want to have to do it. But they have that option in the back of their mind. It gives them a comfort zone for making other decisions that impact their income. There are different students in the class who are working full time now, even while they are students. They face quite different risks.

    Another thing you might have considered is a year two after you take the job. Perhaps there is a possibility of promotion. Alternatively maybe you want to find work with another company. Are there things you can do now and in the near future that might improve your chances with either of these? Those things I would term management. There is some planning involved and then execution of the plan.

    Just to make the above concrete, I've had students in the last few years who have gotten their job in the middle of my course and thereafter had an acute case of senioritis, with still the spring semester to get through. Of course, I can understand some celebration for getting a job and having peace of mind about that. I don't want to begrudge any student's success. But might the rest of the time till the student graduates have derivative value down the road, if the student applies herself accordingly?

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  2. You bring up good points. A huge driver in my decision was my parents financial security: they pay my tuition and living expenses as well as have given me a car on campus. My intention is also to live at home following graduation to be able to save up a bit of money. Therefore, with all living expenses covered, the only money I would need would be disposable income which is not a big enough factor to mitigate the risk of holding out for a job.

    There were a series of factors I considered in my decision, promotion being one of them. However, personal preferences for me indicate growth and culture as the two most important factors to consider. In terms of planning: growth is a huge factor to consider. I looked at trends in company size, relevant company news, M&A, as well as financial positioning in terms of past five years and forecasts. Do these signs indicate a healthy company growth- therefore hinting at job security into the future.

    That is a great point, however most companies are putting hedges against that type of behavior. All of my offers have contingency clauses stating that if you do not maintain a minimum GPA of X.XX/ 4.00 upon graduation, your offer will no longer be available to you. This is an example of an extrinsic motivator, and of course you would think a student would want to continue to work hard, but in most cases they do not and therefore must be motivated by contingency agreements.

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